4. How does the pattern of rainfall and temperature effects Indian crop yields: A detailed study highlighting the results of climate change on agriculture and Indian economy
Climate change has significant and far-reaching effects on agriculture, a cornerstone of the Indian economy, which supports nearly 60% of the population and contributes substantially to national GDP. This study focuses on understanding the effects of average rainfall and temperature on Indian crop yields such as oilseeds, rice, pulses, maize and wheat over a five year (2020-2025) timeframe through tree-based AI models like XGBoost. Results indicated that the optimal rainfall threshold and climate sensitivity vary markedly across Indian states. The average rainfall (mm) and average temperature (°C) for the maize, oilseeds, pulses, rice and wheat was found to be in the range of 1080-1142 mm and 26.96-27.14 °C, with average yield between 33.73-36.34 q/ha. The data patterns showed that climatic disturbances have led to reduced yields of staple crops thereby affecting food security, rural livelihoods, and income stability.
Accepted for presentation at the International Conference on Environment and Life Science 2025, Texas USA
Submitted for publication in Journal of Indian Association for Environmental Management (JIAEM)
Link to Published Paper